USF St. Petersburg campus Honors Program Theses (Undergraduate)

First Advisor

Philip van Beynen

Second Advisor

Catherine Wilkins, Ph.D.

Publisher

University of South Florida St. Petersburg

Document Type

Thesis

Publication Date

2023

Date Issued

April 2023

Abstract

This thesis reviews the current scientific literature on the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a particular focus on the implications for North America and the United States. ENSO is a major driver of global climate variability, influencing temperature, precipitation, drought, agriculture, and hurricane activity through complex atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections. The review examines recent climate modeling studies, paleoclimate records, and research on related climate systems to assess how global warming may alter ENSO characteristics. Although substantial uncertainty remains due to model variability and the complexity of interacting climate processes, much of the literature suggests that climate change may increase ENSO variability, promote more frequent extreme El Niño and Central Pacific El Niño events, weaken the Walker Circulation, and shift the Pacific climate toward a more El Niño-like mean state. These changes are expected to intensify and redistribute precipitation patterns, increase the frequency of extreme weather events, and alter interactions between ENSO and other climate oscillations. For the United States, projected consequences include heightened drought and aridity in the Southwest, greater variability in agricultural productivity, changes in crop yields linked to ENSO phases, and significant impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity through shifts in atmospheric circulation and wind shear. While uncertainties remain regarding the magnitude and direction of some future ENSO responses, the literature consistently indicates that climate change will amplify many ENSO-related environmental risks, highlighting the need for continued research, improved climate modeling, and adaptive planning to mitigate impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and human communities. [austineva_...ough Draft | PDF]

Comments

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the University Honors Program University of South Florida, St. Petersburg April 18, 2023.

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