Despite their striking similarities, which include population demographics, size, and a legacy of inter-group conflict, the collapse of democratization in Rwanda and Burundi in the early 1990s led to genocide in Rwanda and a different type of violence in Burundi. This study suggests that to better comprehend why risk factors lead to genocide in some cases and not others, focus must be placed on how these factors are perceived by those in power of the state experiencing them. This study introduces a model that uses Comparative Historical Analysis (CHA), process tracing, and the inclusion of a decision model built on the assumptions of prospect theory to explain this variegated outcome. This study is unique from others in that there has been no attempt made by genocide scholars to combine prospect theory and historical institutionalism to explain variations in the occurrence of genocide.

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Many thanks to Deborah Mayersen and Ernesto Verdeja for all of their comments and suggestions!



Creative Commons License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License