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  A 2024 Guide to Assessing: Resiliency and Resistance in Iran

  Robert Burrell and David Diorio

  This essay applies a data-driven and human-centric methodology to examine resiliency and resistance aspects in the Islamic Republic of Iran. It applies a four-phase process to analyze state resiliency, assess resistance to governance, identify various resistance movements, and provide possible options for an external actor to influence Iran's stability or to support resistance to the Islamic Republic. The methodologies utilized in this essay were previously published by Small Wars and Insurgencies and Expeditions with the Marine Corps University Press. In analyzing Iran, the data finds the Islamic Republic is a fragile regime governing a state with multiple and deep societal divisions. Resistance in Iran has great potential but external support to the Islamic State also has potential. Support for a reform movement akin to the Green Path of Hope could prove decisive.

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  Iran-Israel Conflict: A New Stage Emerges

  Arman Mahmoudian

  After Iran's strike against Israel on April 13th, the intensifying rivalry between Iran and Israel has escalated into a new stage of direct confrontation, marked by significant military engagements with profound implications for regional stability and global security. This paper explores the shift from proxy conflicts to direct actions, including Iran's missile and drone assaults and Israel's retaliatory strikes. It examines the redefined engagement rules, the ensuing arms race, and the transformation of international relations, particularly involving major powers like Russia and China. Additionally, it highlights the potential impacts on the United States, including risks to troops and the likelihood of a broader conflict, as well as the possibility of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The paper concludes with policy recommendations to navigate the complexities of this evolving geopolitical landscape.

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  Israel-Hamas Conflict: Operational Considerations and Strategy

  Arman Mahmoudian

  The recent attack by Hamas demonstrates an unprecedented level of capability and sophistication from the extremist militia, coupled with a significant intelligence failure on Israel’s part. The IDF’s vulnerability can be attributed to an expanding threat landscape and the evolving counter-intelligence tactics used by their adversaries. The rise of Iran-backed forces in the region, along with the increasingly covert operations by Hamas and similar groups, challenges Israel’s intelligence capabilities. However, the pressing question now is not about the occurrence of the attack but how Israel should respond. Potential strategies for Israel to reestablish deterrence include maintaining direct control, transferring authority to the West Bank, or adopting a collaborative International-Arab governance model. Each option carries significant strategic implications. Direct Israeli control might strain its resources and lead to further conflicts. Handing authority to the West Bank Authorities could embolden extremist factions. On the other hand, a joint governance approach could upset regional power balances. Given these complexities, Israel might consider a two-pronged strategy: retaining limited territorial control in areas of Gaza adjacent to the Israeli border, while conducting special operations throughout the rest of the Gaza Strip to neutralize and eliminate high-value enemy facilities and individuals. This approach would address immediate security concerns and provide a window to develop a sustainable strategy that considers both national and international perspectives.

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  Russia-Iran Military Cooperation: The Dynamic Is Changing Dramatically Because of Drones in the Ukraine War

  Arman Mahmoudian

  Russia's struggles in Ukraine, marked by military setbacks, pushed Moscow to seek a cost- effective arms supplier. Iran readily stepped in. Supplying Russia with UAVs, particularly Kamikaze drones, marked a significant shift in Russo-Persian military ties. Historically, this was an "asymmetric partnership." Russia, one of the few to offer Iran arms and political support, held the upper hand. Conversely, Iran, with minimal "bargaining power," relied heavily on Russia as other major powers were either indifferent or hostile to it. However, this imbalance was more due to "urgent need" than mere "power disparity." For two centuries, challenges ranging from internal revolts, British pressures, to the war with Iraq and international sanctions compelled Iran to lean on Russian military aid. The West and Israel's persistent threats only deepened Iran's reliance on Russia. Now, the dynamic has shifted. Russia's dire need for arms introduces a new mutual dependence in Russo-Persian military relations.

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  #1 on the U.S. Most Wanted List: Why the Push is on to Ban the World’s Most Successful Startup from Academic, Government and Military Devices in the United States

  Tom Waters

  TikTok is a social media application that has amassed over 100 million users in the United States. Yet the Biden White House, like the Trump Administration before it, seeks to ban TikTok, or at least force it’s divestment from the parent company, Bytedance. For many the question is how can an app for sharing silly dance videos among teenagers be a national security threat? Unfortunately, the problem is considerably more complex than this simple question. TikTok’s unprecedented success comes from its powerful artificial intelligence-based algorithm.

  That activity produces a comprehensive psychological profile of each user and tailors the queue of forthcoming video selections based on that profile. TikTok’s highly personalized content keeps users engaged longer than other social media platforms. The app’s underlying algorithm understands the user’s moods, political leanings, even their level of loneliness. The U.S. government is concerned that a China-based company with comprehensive dossiers on millions of Americans presents a significant national security threat, one that potentially justifies banning the app completely.