Document Type

Poster Session

Publication Date

2024

Abstract

Pinellas County, which has a large percentage of 55+ adults (42.5%) was affected by Hurricane Ian in 2022. The Forecast cone changed paths many times in the days leading to landfall (Figures 1-4). At one point Pinellas County was forecasted to be the area of landfall for Ian at major hurricane strength, but forecasts shifted south before landfall. By definition of the National Hurricane Center, the cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, its designed so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the cone. Research conducted by Scotney et al. (2022) found a positive relationship between age and the number of questions answered correctly about the forecast cone.

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