Document Type

Article

Publication Date

August 2020

Patent Number

10754959

Abstract

Procedures to identify the probabilities for different states in a vulnerability life cycle are described. The probabilities are used to develop a number of statistical models to evaluate the risk factor of a particular vulnerability at time “t”. A transition probability matrix of all states of a particular vulnerability as a function of time is also described. A Markov chain process can be iterated to reach a steady state of the transition probability matrix, with the initial probabilities reaching the absorbing states, including exploited and patched states. A risk factor is also introduced for use as an index of the risk of a vulnerability being exploited. Finally, statistical models that can calculate the risk factor more conveniently without going through the Markovian process are described.

Application Number

15/875249

Assignees

University of South Florida

Filing Date

01/19/2018

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