Marine Science Faculty Publications

Heat Vulnerability in the City of Ponce, Puerto Rico

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2026

Keywords

Urban heat island, Land surface temperature, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, Public health, Green infrastructure

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102742

Abstract

This study assessed heat vulnerability in the city of Ponce, Puerto Rico, by integrating satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) data with demographic and socioeconomic indicators. Spatial analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate regression were applied to develop a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) that maps heat risk across urban neighborhoods. Environmental variables, LST, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), impervious surface cover, slope, and elevation, were analyzed alongside indicators such as age, disability, living alone, poverty, and unemployment to identify key drivers of heat exposure, social isolation, and vulnerability. Multivariate regression analysis showed that lower vegetation, greater impervious surface, lower elevation, and a small cooling effect from slope were significantly associated with higher LST, explaining over 80 % of temperature variability. Results show that census tracts classified as High Vulnerability consistently experienced elevated temperatures and were characterized by higher concentrations of elderly individuals, people with disabilities, and socially isolated residents. These high vulnerability census tracts, where extreme heat and social disadvantage converge, represent areas where immediate heat mitigation actions may be most effective. Green infrastructure investments (e.g., urban greening), targeted adaptation strategies (e.g., cooling centers, community outreach), and urban planning policies are likely to reduce risk and improve resilience in high vulnerability areas. This research provides actionable insights for city planners, public health officials, and policymakers to protect the lives, health, and well-being of residents in Ponce amid a changing environment.

Was this content written or created while at USF?

Yes

Citation / Publisher Attribution

Urban Climate, v. 65, art. 102742

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