eruption source parameters, uncertainty quantification, eruption magnitude, tephra fallout modeling, tephra inversion
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in eruption source parameters, like tephra volume, plume height, and umbrella cloud radius, is a challenge for volcano scientists because tephra deposits are often sparsely sampled due to burial, erosion, and related factors. We find that UQ is improved by coupling an advection-diffusion model with two Bayesian inversion approaches: (a) a robust but computationally expensive Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation algorithm, and (b) a more approximate but inexpensive parameter estimation algorithm combined with first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation. We apply the two inversion methods to one sparsely sampled tephra fall unit from the 2070 BP El Misti (Peru) eruption and obtain: Tephra mass 0.78–1.4 × 1011 kg; umbrella cloud radius 4.5–16.5 km, and plume height 8–35 km (95% confidence intervals). These broad ranges demonstrate the significance of UQ for eruption classification based on mapped deposits, which has implications for hazard management.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Was this content written or created while at USF?
Citation / Publisher Attribution
Geophysical Research Letters, v. 49, issue 6, art. e2021GL097425
Scholar Commons Citation
Constantinescu, R.; White, J. T.; Connor, C. B.; Hopulele-Gligor, A.; Charbonnier, S.; Thouret, J.-C.; Lindsay, J. M.; and Bertin, D., "Uncertainty Quantification of Eruption Source Parameters Estimated From Tephra Fall Deposits" (2022). School of Geosciences Faculty and Staff Publications. 2340.