Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2022
Keywords
eruption source parameters, uncertainty quantification, eruption magnitude, tephra fallout modeling, tephra inversion
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097425
Abstract
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in eruption source parameters, like tephra volume, plume height, and umbrella cloud radius, is a challenge for volcano scientists because tephra deposits are often sparsely sampled due to burial, erosion, and related factors. We find that UQ is improved by coupling an advection-diffusion model with two Bayesian inversion approaches: (a) a robust but computationally expensive Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation algorithm, and (b) a more approximate but inexpensive parameter estimation algorithm combined with first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation. We apply the two inversion methods to one sparsely sampled tephra fall unit from the 2070 BP El Misti (Peru) eruption and obtain: Tephra mass 0.78–1.4 × 1011 kg; umbrella cloud radius 4.5–16.5 km, and plume height 8–35 km (95% confidence intervals). These broad ranges demonstrate the significance of UQ for eruption classification based on mapped deposits, which has implications for hazard management.
Rights Information
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Was this content written or created while at USF?
Yes
Citation / Publisher Attribution
Geophysical Research Letters, v. 49, issue 6, art. e2021GL097425
Scholar Commons Citation
Constantinescu, R.; White, J. T.; Connor, C. B.; Hopulele-Gligor, A.; Charbonnier, S.; Thouret, J.-C.; Lindsay, J. M.; and Bertin, D., "Uncertainty Quantification of Eruption Source Parameters Estimated From Tephra Fall Deposits" (2022). School of Geosciences Faculty and Staff Publications. 2340.
https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/geo_facpub/2340
Supporting Information S1
