Graduation Year
2023
Document Type
Thesis
Degree
M.S.C.E.
Degree Name
MS in Civil Engineering (M.S.C.E.)
Degree Granting Department
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Major Professor
Mauricio Arias, Ph.D.
Committee Member
Qiong Zhang, Ph.D.
Committee Member
Mark Rains, Ph.D.
Keywords
Flows, Land Use Land Cover Transition, Nutrient Loading, Urbanization Projections, Water Quality
Abstract
Over the past 150 years, Florida has undergone a major land-form transformation, transitioning from a natural to a primarily built environment. The state's population has grown exponentially, from less than 50,000 residents in the 1850s to approximately 22 million residents today. This population growth has led to significant changes in land use, including urbanization, mining, and agriculture. This trend is expected to continue, with projections indicating an increase in urbanization across the state. 2070 land use/land cover projections were used as input for the Watershed Assessment Model (WAM) to analyze the potential impact of these changes on flow, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in the Lake Okeechobee watershed in central Florida. Results indicate that the proportion of urban land in the watershed will increase from 14% currently to 27% in 2070. Overall, flows increased in the watershed after urbanization, with the magnitude and uncertainty increasing with proportion of urban land in the watershed. TN and TP loading in the basin increased by 320656 tons/month and 3702 tons/month respectively, with the most significant change resulting from the transition of Freshwater Marshes and Mixed Wetland Hardwood to Urban. Individual sub-watersheds were analyzed, and it was found that TN and TP could increase by up to 158% and 98% respectively in some sub-watersheds, with Upper Kissimmee (UK) obtaining the largest change of TN load and Indian Prairie (IP) obtaining the largest change in TP load. For the future development, three distinct Urban Density scenarios were modeled to account for the uncertainty associated with future development patterns, providing a range of possible nutrient load values for the future. The study highlights the importance of anticipating and mitigating the potential impacts of LULC transitions and preserving natural lands. These findings have significant implications for water resource management in South Florida.
Scholar Commons Citation
Lora Santos, Andres, "Land Use/Land Cover Uncertainty Analysis Using Hydrological Modeling in the Northern Watershed of Lake Okeechobee" (2023). USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations.
https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/etd/9896
