Graduation Year

2025

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Ph.D.

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

Degree Granting Department

School of Interdisciplinary Global Studies

Major Professor

Steven Roach, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Edward Kissi, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Kersuze Simeon-Jones, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Milkessa Gemechu, Ph.D.

Keywords

Critical Juncture Theory, Digital Authoritarianism, Digital Disruption, Institutional Breakdown, Technological Statecraft, Transnational Political Economy

Abstract

This dissertation aims to examine the impact increased consumption of digital technologies, like social media and the internet, has on the stability and autonomy of low-capacity authoritarian countries. By using Ethiopia (2015-2021) as a case study, the dissertation argues that the sudden adoption and proliferation of digital platforms serves as an exogenous shock that pushes the state into a critical juncture that unravels institutional equilibria and transforms domestic incentive structures and institutions. This creates a power vacuum, which triggers a period of intense, and often violent, competition between elite groups, significantly destabilizing the state. In the absence of a cohesive domestic preference setting mechanism, the dissertation argues that the state becomes vulnerable to external influence, as elite groups seeking to alter the domestic distribution of power and maximize their payoff in the new incentive structures, seek assistance from and become amenable to the preferences of high-capacity external actors willing to provide material assistance. To conceptualize this multidimensional process, the dissertation adopts a synthetic theoretical framework that combines Critical Juncture Theory and Putnam’s Two-Level Game Model. In Ethiopia, the digital mobilization during the Qeerroo protests fractured the EPRDF and collapsed the quasi-authoritarian equilibrium/order. This created a power vacuum that produced intense competition between elites and allowed toxic social media discourse to proliferate unchecked. Thus, these digital platforms evolved into tools for disinformation and narrative warfare, which increased ethnic polarization and inter-group violence, culminating in the Tigrayan conflict. As domestic cohesion eroded, Ethiopia became increasingly dependent on external actors to manage its economic and political crisis. Through a mixed methods approach, the dissertation highlights that, in fragile contexts, digital technologies can weaken the stability and autonomy of states.

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