Graduation Year

2024

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Ph.D.

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

Degree Granting Department

Government and International Affairs

Major Professor

Mohsen Milani, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Golfo Alexopoulos, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Adib Farhadi, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Peter Funke, Ph.D.

Keywords

Shia Zone, RSII, Syrian Civil War, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Quds Force

Abstract

This dissertation examines the intricate dynamics of the partnership between Russia and the Iran-led Shia Axis formed during the Syrian civil war (2011-present), a coalition of Iran-supported state and non-state Shia entities in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This alliance is distinguished by its unprecedented nature: a secular, authoritarian Russia aligning with a network of Shia groups, a collaboration forged amidst shared concerns over Syrian rebels and Sunni extremists, particularly ISIS. Remarkably, this partnership has evolved beyond its initial focus on immediate threats, suggesting a deeper, strategic alignment aimed potentially against a more formidable adversary, the United States. This shift indicates a sustained cooperative effort, transcending transient regional conflicts and pointing to a realignment in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Consequently, dissecting the nature of this Russo-Shia cooperation and its profound implications for U.S. policy in the region is not only relevant but essential. This dissertation endeavors to unravel these complexities, offering a comprehensive analysis of a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

The study employs a multidisciplinary approach, combining mainly offensive realism and Comparative Foreign Policy Analysis. This framework aids in dissecting state and non-state actor dynamics, mutual threat perceptions, and the influence of domestic politics in Iran and Russia on the development of this cooperation. Key findings include the identification of distinct phases in the evolution of cooperation between Russo and Iran-led Shia, characterized by a shift from indirect engagement to direct military involvement. The research underscores how mutual threats, notably the Syrian rebel factions and the rise of ISIS, have been pivotal in fostering this cooperation. Moreover, it examines the asymmetric nature of this cooperation, with Russia predominantly dictating the terms and scope of engagement. In contrast, Iran emerges as the main actor on the battlefield, incurring significant costs in terms of both material resources and manpower.

The study also critically assesses the implications of this cooperation for U.S. strategy in the Middle East. It argues that the Russo-Shia Axis poses a significant challenge to U.S. hegemony in the region, potentially altering the regional balance of power and influencing the effectiveness of U.S. policy. The study dissertation asserts that the collaboration between Russia and the Shia Axis in the Middle East is of a tactical nature and is expected to extend only as long as shared threats continue. By offering a comprehensive analysis of the Russo-Shia cooperation, this dissertation contributes to a deeper understanding of the current Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape and provides insights into the future trajectory of regional power dynamics. It serves as a valuable resource for policymakers and scholars in the field of international relations and Middle Eastern studies.

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