Graduation Year

2024

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Ph.D.

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

Degree Granting Department

School of Geosciences

Major Professor

Ran Tao, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Joni Downs Firat, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Yi Qiang, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Mingshu Wang, Ph.D.

Keywords

Coordination development, Shrinking cities, Spatial analysis, Spatial flows, Urban network

Abstract

As cities worldwide undergo rapid but uneven changes, proposing smart and sustainable urban development strategies has been a popular interdisciplinary research in the 21st century. In particular, the phenomenon of shrinking cities characterized by economic recession and population decline is becoming increasingly severe in developed countries and even developing countries. In the real world, research focusing on individual shrinking cities often neglects the interconnectedness between cities within the network formed by flows. Therefore, coordinating the development strategies for multiple closely connected cities, especially for shrinking cities, is a step up from focusing on individual cities.

This dissertation aims to propose a cohesive analytical framework for coordinated development strategies for shrinking cities by answering three main research questions: (1) how to detect urban changes, especially urban shrinkage, at a fine spatiotemporal resolution? (2) what are the main destinations and spatial patterns of population and investment outflows from shrinking cities? (3) How is the coordinated development of shrinking cities, and how is it affected by migration and investment flows?

To answer the first research question, a new spatial statistical method has been developed to detect heterogeneous urban changes at a fine spatiotemporal resolution. Accurate urban change detection is the foundation for developing coordinated strategies because it identifies which cities or urban districts need certain types of strategies by revealing the heterogeneous nature of urban developments. To answer the second research question, I apply the analysis of main destinations, position and connectivity in the network, and spatial connections between the two types of flows to further explore the role of shrinking cities in migration and investment urban networks. To answer the third research question, the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) based on economic, social, and environmental systems is used to examine the coordinated development of shrinking cities. By further combining migration and investment flows to assess the impact and spatial patterns of population and capital flows on urban development. Targeted development strategies for shrinking cities are proposed through the classification of shrinking cities, providing guidance for achieving sustainable and coordinated urban development.

The three aspects jointly form a research framework for proposing coordinated development strategies for shrinking cities networked by spatial flows. This framework not only enriches the detection of urban change at a fine spatiotemporal resolution but also innovatively examines the spatial patterns of shrinking cities from the perspective of spatial flows. More importantly, it fills the knowledge gap of proposing coordinated development strategies for shrinking cities to cope with urban shrinkage challenges. The framework of this research could be applied to various scales including countries or specific regions, giving guidance for urban planners and policymakers to tailor targeted development strategies for shrinking cities.

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