Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2011
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/579597
Abstract
As recently pointed out by the Institute of Medicine, the existing pandemic mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capability. We develop a large-scale simulation-driven optimization model for generating dynamic predictive distribution of vaccines and antivirals over a network of regional pandemic outbreaks. The model incorporates measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the cost of lost productivity and medical expenses. The performance of the strategy is compared to that of the reactive myopic policy, using a sample outbreak in Fla, USA, with an affected population of over four millions. The comparison is implemented at different levels of vaccine and antiviral availability and administration capacity. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of variability of some critical factors on policy performance. The model is intended to support public health policy making for effective distribution of limited mitigation resources.
Rights Information
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Was this content written or created while at USF?
Yes
Citation / Publisher Attribution
Influenza Research and Treatment, v. 2011, art. 579597
Scholar Commons Citation
Uribe-Sánchez, Andrés and Savachkin, Alex, "Predictive and Reactive Distribution of Vaccines and Antivirals during Cross-Regional Pandemic Outbreaks" (2011). Industrial and Management Systems Engineering Faculty Publications. 56.
https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/egs_facpub/56
