Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2020
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.58511
Abstract
The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector–pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23–26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24–25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.
Rights Information
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Was this content written or created while at USF?
Yes
Citation / Publisher Attribution
eLife, v. 9, art. e58511
Scholar Commons Citation
Shocket, Marta S.; Verwillow, Anna B.; Numazu, Mailo G.; Slamani, Hani; Cohen, Jeremy M.; Moustaid, Fadoua El; Rohr, Jason; Johnson, Leah R.; and Mordecai, Erin A., "Transmission of West Nile and Five Other Temperate Mosquito-borne Viruses Peaks at Temperatures Between 23°C and 26°C" (2020). Integrative Biology Faculty and Staff Publications. 485.
https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/bin_facpub/485
