Abstract
This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 on Swiss 4-star hotel arrivals using time series analysis and forecasts future demand through 2025. Employing a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with intervention analysis, monthly arrival data from January 2005 to December 2022 were analyzed to quantify pandemic-related disruptions. Forecasts from January 2023 to December 2025 suggest a full recovery by March 2023, marking a 36-month rebound period. The pandemic’s economic impact mirrored downturns last seen in the 1970s, underscoring its severity. Findings offer actionable insights for hotel managers and tourism stakeholders, particularly in revenue management and strategic planning. Unlike prior research focused on large hotel chains, this study addresses the underrepresented segment of independently owned Swiss hotels. It highlights the role of local tourism as a time-sensitive factor in crisis recovery and provides a foundational understanding of post-pandemic performance trends in the 4-star category.
Keywords
intervention analysis, seasonal ARIMA, hotel arrivals, Switzerland, forecast
DOI
10.5038/2771-5957.5.1.1073
Recommended Citation
Queckenstedt, Y., & Zheng, T. (2026). COVID-19 impact on the Swiss hotel industry: a time series analysis on 4-stars hotels. Journal of Global Hospitality and Tourism, 5(1), 21-39. https://www.doi.org/10.5038/2771-5957.5.1.1073
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License
Included in
Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons, Hospitality Administration and Management Commons, Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons, Tourism and Travel Commons
