According to the embodiments, a statistical model is developed to estimate the probability of being in a certain stage of a particular vulnerability in its life cycle. The methodology with the application of Markov chain theory gives the basis for calculating estimates for probabilities for different stages of a life cycle of the vulnerability considered. Using the developed method, it is possible to evaluate the risk level of a particular vulnerability at a certain time. These developments allow an advantage in taking measures to avoid exploitations and introduce patches for the vulnerability before an attacker takes the advantage of that particular vulnerability.
Rajasooriya, Sasith Maduranga; Tsokos, Chris Peter; and Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Pubudu Kalpani K, "Vulnerability life cycle exploitation timing modeling" (2020). USF Patents. 1163.
University of South Florida