Document Type
Poster Session
Publication Date
1-18-2026
Abstract
Sea level rise increases the likelihood that water levels will exceed flooding thresholds. This is particularly true for low-lying areas such as Florida. The rate of change of these exceedances is a topic of research, and important for planning community resilience to climate change. Data from NOAA coastal tide gauges for the Southeast U.S. were used to determine the annual 95th, 98th, and 99th percentile exceedance levels from 1975 to 2022, for each year and with Summer and Winter segments. Exceedance levels were on average 5-10% higher during Summer compared to Winter. The tide gauge station at Fernandina Beach had the largest average exceedance at the 99th percentile (137 cm), while Vaca Key Island had the lowest (36 cm), due to differences in the tidal range (Fig. 3). Linear trends and their uncertainty were determined for each station. In Winter and both-season cases, the long-term linear rate of increase of the exceedances were about equal to the rate of mean sea level rise at each station. That is, exceedance was mainly driven by mean sea level rise. However, at many Florida stations the rate of increase of the exceedance levels in the Summer were greater. The mean rate of increase for 2000-2022 was about double the mean rate from 1980-2000. Understanding these trends is vital for anticipating future impacts of climate change on individual coastal communities.
Rights Information
Scholar Commons Citation
Willis, Xavier; Kahn, Ian; Meyers, Steven; and Luther, Mark, "Changing High Water Exceedances in the Southeast U.S." (2026). Making Waves REU. 18.
https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/making-waves_reu/18
