Teaching Bayesian Statistics To Intelligence Analysts: Lessons Learned

Authors

Kristan J. Wheaton, Mercyhurst College
Jennifer Lee, Mercyhurst College
Hemangini Deshmukh, Mercyhurst College

Author Biography

Kristan J. Wheaton, Department of Intelligence Studies, Mercyhurst College

Jennifer Lee, Department of Intelligence Studies, Mercyhurst College

Hemangini Deshmukh, Department of Mathematics, Mercyhurst College

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.2.1.3

Subject Area Keywords

Intelligence analysis, Intelligence studies/education, Methodology, Security studies

Abstract

The Community must develop and integrate into regular use new toolsthat can assist analysts in filtering and correlating the vast quantities of information that threaten to overwhelm the analytic process…—Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United StatesRegarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (The WMD Report)1Unlike the other social sciences and, particularly, the physical sciences, where scientists get to choose the questions they wish to answer and experiments are carefully designed to confirm or negate hypotheses, intelligence analysis requires analysts to deal with thedemands of decision makers and estimate the intentions of foreign actors, criminals or business competitors in an environment filled with uncertainty and even deliberate

Recommended Citation

Wheaton, Kristan J.; Lee, Jennifer; and Deshmukh, Hemangini. "Teaching Bayesian Statistics To Intelligence Analysts: Lessons Learned." Journal of Strategic Security 2, no. 1 (2010) : 39-58.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.2.1.3
Available at: https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/jss/vol2/iss1/3