•  
  •  

Home > Open Access Journals > JSS > Vol. 19 > No. 3 (2026)

 

Author Biography

Olileanya Amuche Ezugwu is a researcher specializing in hydro-politics, environmental security, conflict studies, and African regional integration. Her work explores how drought, regional instability, climate change, and environmental degredation impacts transboundary water management and governance.

Dr. Felix Chidozie is a distinguished Nigerian academic, political scientist, and the current Dean of Student Affairs at Covenant University Nigeria. He is a highly regarded researcher specializing in international relations, conflict studies, foreign policy, and African development.

Dr. Adeola A. Adebajo is a prominent Nigerian academic, political scientist, and researcher at Covenant University, Nigeria and at Tai Solarin University of Education Nigeria. With over a decade of higher education teaching and research experience, she is widely recognized for her contributions to peace, conflict, and gender studies.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.5038/1944.0472.19.3.2624

Subject Area Keywords

Africa, Conflict studies, Energy security, Environment, sustainability and security, Peace studies, Regional conflict

Abstract

Why have more than a decade of negotiations, mediation efforts, and diplomatic interventions failed to produce a binding agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)? This article examines the hydro-politics of the Nile Basin through the lens of game theory, focusing on how bargaining behavior, strategic persistence, and competing perceptions of gains and losses shape state interactions. Drawing on the game of attrition and the bargaining game, the study analyzes the evolving strategies of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan in the context of dam construction, filling, and operation. Rather than viewing the dispute solely as a contest over water allocation, winning or losing, the article argues that it reflects a broader struggle over regional influence, negotiation leverage, and the redistribution of hydro-political power in the Nile Basin. Particular attention is paid to Sudan’s shifting position amid domestic political upheaval, the implications of the Sudanese civil war for Nile diplomacy, and the growing relevance of South Sudan within emerging regional alignments. The findings show that prolonged negotiations persisted because continued bargaining offered greater strategic value than either concession or escalation, especially to Ethiopia. The article concludes that the GERD dispute illustrates how states can simultaneously compete, negotiate, and avoid water wars while seeking to reshape the regional order and attract external allies to their advantage.

Disclaimer

No funding was received for this research.

No conflict of interest.

Download

Share

COinS