•  
  •  

Home > Open Access Journals > JSS > Vol. 17 > No. 2 (2024)

 

Author Biography

Jonathan M. Acuff is an Associate Professor in the Department of Intelligence and Security Studies at Coastal Carolina University. He received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Washington and was a Ford Foundation fellow at the University of Iowa. Before entering graduate school, he served as an officer in the U.S. Army Reserve for nine years and worked as a military analyst for the National Bureau of Asian Research. He has published research on military doctrine, intelligence analysis, and nationalism, most recently Jonathan M. Acuff et al. Intelligence Studies: Institutions, Operations, and Analysis. Washington, DC: SAGE/CQ, 2021.

Hannah N. Clegg is a recent graduate of Coastal Carolina University. She is currently an analyst at the National Security Agency. This paper is based on her prior work as a student and does not reflect official policy positions of the U.S. government or the NSA.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.17.2.2235

Subject Area Keywords

Civil war and internal conflict, Identity, Ideology, International security, Russia

Abstract

We analyze a range of future scenarios for Russia related to the Ukraine War. Although regime change is a publicly-stated objective for several leaders of NATO countries, we find very little prospect for it. The Russian economy has largely evaded the effects of the sanctions. Despite enormous casualties and incompetence in the management of the war, both Putin and the war remain popular with the Russian public. Contrary to most analysis to date, the Wagner Group mutiny of June 2023 is not an indication of Putin’s weakness, but his strength. The coercive mechanisms of the Russian state remain intact. Indeed, they have grown stronger. Finally, there is little to no prospect for the emergence of a significant antiwar movement. Regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Putin is likely to remain in power. Western leaders should begin to grapple with this unpleasant reality and its policy implications.

Acknowledgements

This paper was previously presented at the annual meeting of International Studies Association Northeast in Baltimore, MD, on November 5, 2022. We are grateful for comments from panel participants and the audience.

Download

Share

COinS