Author Biography

Charles J. Koch is a Captain in the United States Army. He is currently the commander for Headquarters and Headquarters Detachment, 94th Military Police Battalion at Camp Humphreys, Korea. He holds a Master of Science in International Relations from Troy University and a Bachelor of Science in Art, Philosophy, and Literature from the United States Military Academy.



Subject Area Keywords

International relations, International security, National power


This article tests the power transition theory using relative military power within a dyad pair. The author hypothesizes that when a dyad pair achieves relative military power parity, the two states are likely to initiate war. Furthermore, when a dyad pair no longer maintains relative military power parity, the probability of war between the two states decreases. Although the sample population used to test this hypothesis is small (n=3), the mixed-method analysis indicates support to the power transition theory. Furthermore, results are more substantial when using military expenditure and surplus domestic when compared to results using military personnel and surplus domestic product. No statistically significant difference exists (p=.99) when comparing military expenditure and surplus domestic product with a combination of military expenditure, military personnel, and surplus domestic product. These results indicate that relative military power possesses the potential to provide researchers an additional quantitative measure to test the power transition theory. Although these initial results are promising, further research is required to test a larger sample population of dyads.


This work does not represent the views of the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense, or any other department of the United States Government. The author can provide data mentioned in this article upon request at charlesjkoch@icloud.com.