Inferring Origin-Destination Pairs and Utility-Based Travel Preferences of Shared Mobility System Users in a Multi-Modal Environment

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origin-destination estimation, traveler preferences, expectation maximization, probabilistic inference, multimodal route choice, bike sharing systems, shared mobility systems

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This paper presents a methodological framework to identify population-wide traveler type distribution and simultaneously infer individual travelers’ Origin-Destination (OD) pairs, based on the individual records of a shared mobility (bike) system use in a multimodal travel environment. Given the information about the travelers’ outbound and inbound bike stations under varied price settings, the developed Selective Set Expectation Maximization (SSEM) algorithm infers an underlying distribution of travelers over the given traveler “types,” or “classes,” treating each traveler’s OD pair as a latent variable; the inferred most likely traveler type for each traveler then informs their most likely OD pair. The experimental results based on simulated data demonstrate high SSEM learning accuracy both on the aggregate and dissagregate levels.

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Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, v. 91, p. 270-291