Document Type

Technical Report

Publication Date



Florida Transportation Plan, risk, uncertainty, consequence, future


Transportation is in a period of transformation as technology offers new ways to travel, shop, ship goods, and do business. Rapid technological changes, along with changing demographics, extreme weather events, fluctuating revenues, and other potential disruptors, have increased uncertainty in long-range transportation plans and forecasts. To address this uncertainty and reduce risk, planners are attempting to anticipate alternative futures and the potential timing of technological changes so they may adapt policy and investment strategies to offer value across a range of alternative futures.

This research project, entitled Assessment of Planning Risks and Alternative futures for the Florida Transportation Plan, involves faculty and graduate students from across the state of Florida in interdisciplinary research to address planning risk and alternative futures that can inform the update of the Florida Transportation Plan (FTP). The FTP is the single overarching statewide plan guiding Florida’s transportation future. It is a plan for all of Florida, created by, and providing direction to, the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) and all organizations that are involved in planning and managing Florida’s transportation system, including statewide, regional, and local partners.

The overarching goal of this research is to help FDOT understand how risk and uncertainty can be addressed in long- range transportation planning processes with a focus on the FTP Vision and Policy Elements. FDOT is particularly interested in exploring risk and uncertainty related to population and demographics, economy and revenue, technology and energy, environment and natural disasters, and broader global issues.


Project Number: FDOT BDV25-977-57