Document Type

Article

Publication Date

Fall 12-5-2025

Keywords

Artificial Intelligence, Red Tide, Environment, Health, Alerting System, Predictive Model, beach advisory system, Florida Gulf Coast beaches, Florida Gulf Coast beaches, satellite remote sensing, respiratory risk forecast, onshore wind exposure

Abstract

Florida’s Gulf Coast red tide (Karenia brevis) can put toxins into the air, making people cough, irritating the throat, and worsening asthma or other breathing problems especially when winds blow from the ocean toward the beach. Right now, most public updates don’t really help with the question people actually ask when planning a weekend or vacation: “Will going to or close to the beach be risky in the next few weeks?”.

In this project, I build a weekly early warning system that estimates respiratory risk for specific beaches and predicts that risk 2 to 4 weeks ahead. The study covers 80 Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) beach sites from Escambia County (Panhandle) down to Collier County. Each beach-week combines three main data sources: ERA5 10-meter wind reanalysis (u10, v10) , University of South Florida (USF) VIIRS-based monthly red-tide bloom frequency rasters , and FWC field samples of Karenia brevis cell counts. From these datasets, I create beach level indicators for whether blooms are present nearby and whether winds are likely to push aerosols onshore. I then define the risk based on bloom conditions and wind direction.

This work aims to make red tide risk more local, more practical, and easier to use for families, residents, and visitors especially for those that suffer from allergies and need to plan ahead schedule an outing to or near the beach.

Was this content written or created while at USF?

Yes

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