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Description

The Russia-Ukraine war appears to be entering a new and uncertain phase. Over the past several months, both sides have intensified their operations, signaling the likely adoption of new strategies while simultaneously reacting to pressure from the Trump administration to “stop the bloodshed.” In March 2025, Russia launched its largest aerial assault against Ukraine up until that time, unleashing a barrage of 367 drones and missiles against the nation it invaded in February 2022. At the same time, Ukraine has demonstrated an increasing capability to strike deep into Russian territory, targeting military leaders, strategic bombers, and military airfields. Kyiv even recently attacked the symbolic Crimean Bridge for the third time. These operations suggest that both Moscow and Kyiv are seeking to reshape the balance of power on the battlefield.

In fact, the failure of recent diplomatic efforts to initiate a peace process has only served to increase the pace of military activities. The peace talks held in Istanbul earlier in June quickly collapsed due to Russia’s demand that Ukraine relinquish large portions of its territory and dramatically reduce the size of its military. These entrenched positions make a negotiated settlement unlikely to bring the war to an end in the near term.

Currently, the conflict is not static; it has evolved through multiple stages since the occupation of Crimea in 2014, with each stage marked by shifts in tactics, operational objectives, and even strategy, as well as territorial control. As new forms of warfare, especially asymmetric tactics and special operations gain prominence, understanding the trajectory of this war becomes increasingly vital. A review of the conflict’s progression to date offers critical context for what may lie ahead.

Publication Date

6-12-2025

DOI

https://doi.org/10.5038/PLUE1313

GNSI Decision Brief: From Attrition to Asymmetry: A Strategic Assessment of Recent Developments in the Russia-Ukraine War

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