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  GNSI Decision Brief: A Lasting Peace to the Russo-Ukraine War: Obstacles and Considerations

  Golfo Alexopolous and Tad Schnaufer

  When the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia started in 2014, with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support of separatists in the Donbas, negotiated settlements failed to bring peace. Both Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 did little to return to pre-war conditions and instead created a frozen conflict that reignited with Russia’s invasion in February of 2022. With that recent failure, how will opposing Russian and Ukrainian perspectives limit the success of any settlement to the conflict? Each of the belligerents in the current war in Ukraine has a distinct perspective regarding their nation’s origins, historical experiences, and national identity. These perspectives will influence the peace process and shape the post-war order while largely determining whether this war ends definitively or simply pauses for a time before breaking out again. A lasting peace would be in the interest of the US and its allies in Europe. The obstacles that could block a negotiated settlement and how the key players might overcome them for a lasting peace will be examined below.

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  GNSI Decision Brief: Who Will Rebuild Ukraine's Public Health and Disease Research Laboratories?

  Kelli L. Barr, Eric Bortz, Anton Gerilovych, and Oleksii Solodiankin

  Amid the devastating war in Ukraine, a parallel battle rages on – that against infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic starkly underlined the vital importance of global health surveillance for emerging and re-emerging human and animal pathogens. This challenge has become even more acute in war-torn regions like Ukraine, where healthcare infrastructure is under siege. For viruses with pandemic potential, such as the influenza virus, worldwide surveillance initiatives are essential in tracking the virus’s movement and spread among both animals and humans. Such monitoring serves dual purposes. Firstly, it guides the formulation of the yearly vaccine, ensuring it remains effective against prevailing strains. Secondly, it alerts livestock farmers in advance, enabling the timely rollout of mitigation measures. Moreover, discerning whether a disease outbreak is of natural origin, or an intentional release becomes critical. To achieve this, the global community must share transparent and timely information through a robust network of laboratories with cutting-edge biotechnological capabilities. The war’s ramifications have severely impacted these efforts. Yet, the stakes are too high to let these facilities fade away. This situation leads to the ultimate question: Who will step up to rebuild Ukraine’s public health and disease research laboratories?

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  GNSI Decision Brief: What Keeps the US in the Middle East?

  Arman Mahmoudian and Tad Schnaufer II

  In early August the United States sent “More than 3,000 Marines and Sailors [to the Middle East] in a deployment meant to deter Iran from seizing and harassing merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz.” The decision likely caught many off guard, considering that just two years prior, the US had finalized its troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Yet, this isn't the first instance of the United States oscillating in its engagement with the Middle East. Historically, a range of factors have consistently drawn America into the region. The US had minimal involvement in the Middle East until the compounding interests of oil, great power competition, fighting terrorism, and the resource needs of allies fully engaged it.

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  GNSI Decision Brief: China’s Energy Insecurity

  Tad Schnaufer

  Overview

  Scholars and policymakers alike have used energy production and consumption as a measure of a state’s power and influence.i A state’s energy sector indicates the potential for use in the production of war materials or as an export to use as leverage over other nations. China produces and consumes more energy than any other country in the world and has done so since 2006 and 2009 respectively. Chinese consumption continues to outpace its production as its demand for energy grows.ii China’s large, aging population (around 1.41 billion people) and fast-growing economy have pushed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to look for ways to secure energy resources and the land or sea routes that deliver them.iii Understanding the Chinese domestic demand for energy and the need to secure energy resources will provide insights into the CCP’s foreign policy objectives.

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  GNSI Decision Brief: Integrated Deterrence: What is it Good For?

  Tad Schnaufer

  The Biden administration introduced the concept of Integrated Deterrence (ID) in its 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS). As the report, No I in Team, states, “Integrated deterrence seeks to integrate all tools of national power across domains, geography, and spectrum of conflict, while working with allies and partners.” The Department of Defense’s (DoD) National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s National Military Strategy (NMS) further defined the military’s role in this concept. Critics have noted deficiencies with the whole-of- government approach that ID demands while failing to specify coordination methods across agencies. That same report notes, “what integrated deterrence entails in practical terms remains unclear... This ambiguity raises the risk that integrated deterrence may find itself dead on arrival.” Could this new initiative fail before ever getting off the ground? Another analyst declared, “Integrated Deterrence...is not a bad idea. In fact, it is a good one. But it’s not a strategy.” With these concerns in mind, this brief will explore what ID entails and assess its possible effectiveness.

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  GNSI Decision Brief: Nuclear Weapons on the Battlefield: Arriving sooner rather than later?

  Tad Schnaufer II

  Imagine a Russian Colonel receiving an order from Moscow to deploy a tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) on the Ukrainian frontline. His next order – “Nuke ‘em” – rapidly changes the battlespace and in fact, the world. Since the inception of nuclear weapons in 1945, the threat of nuclear war has loomed over the globe. J. R. Oppenheimer, after the first successful test of an atomic bomb, recalled the Hindi scripture Bhagavad Gita: "Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds." The power of nuclear weapons, along with the possibility of their use has only escalated since then. Starting in 1947, the threat of nuclear annihilation has been measured in part by the renowned “Doomsday Clock.” Today, the clock reads the closest to global catastrophe than at any other time in its history. As the war in Ukraine drags on, and the frontlines stagnate, global decision makers fear that President Vladimir Putin’s Russia may look to turn the tide or gain a domestic win by making good on his threats to use nuclear weapons. In 2022, Putin made it clear that, “To defend Russia and our people, we doubtlessly will use all weapons [and] resources at our disposal...This is not a bluff.”

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  GNSI Decision Brief: The National Guard's State Partnership Program in Strategic Competition

  Tad Schnaufer

  Both the National Security (NSS) and National Defense Strategies (NDS) make it clear that the US is "in the midst of a strategic competition" with Russia and China. Both documents highlight the strengths the US has in this competitive environment, notably its allies and partners. The NSS states, "The United States' unrivaled network of allies and partners protects and advances our interests around the world--and is the envy of our adversaries." The US employs a variety of methods to maintain this invaluable network. One expanding method is the National Guard's State Partnership Program (SPP). The SPP establishes formal relationships between State National Guard units and foreign militaries to share experiences and skills to address security challenges. Created in 1993 to support the new democracies emerging in Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the SPP has expanded to include every US state and territory, who have entered into 88 partnerships with 100 nations (Some having multiple partners). For example, Texas is the only state with three partners: Egypt, Chile, and a shared partnership with Nebraska and Czechia.

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  GNSI Decision Brief: Hunger as a Weapon

  Tad Schnaufer and David Himmelgreen

  Overview

  Maslow’s hierarchy of needs places physiological needs as the foundation of all others.i The needs of food, water, and shelter are referred to as objects indispensable to survival (OIS). A person will think of little else until these basic needs are met, hence the power OIS have over populations. The concept of hunger as a weapon dates to the beginning of written history with Homer’s Iliad describing the siege of Troy. In war, military leaders often consider foodstuffs as it relates to their war effort while analyzing ways to use this basic need against their foe. As the quote attributed to Napoleon goes, “an army marches on its stomach.” Russian’s scorched earth policy during Napoleon’s 1812 invasion would lead to his Grande Armée’s defeat from lacking access to provisions from the countryside. This brief will examine the methods of starvation that militaries have used and continue to use in warfare. It will also explore how the United States and its allies can build resilient food supply chains to withstand crises and conflict.