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Abstract

Exceedingly limited breeding range, dispersal ability, and habitat connectivity tend to characterize species as at risk of extinction. A species endemic to Florida, the Florida Scrub-jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens; scrub-jay), exemplifies these characteristics, which have contributed to its alarming, roughly 90% population decline since the 1800s. To help stop or reverse this ongoing decline, land managers should communicate scrub-jay population trends to facilitate conversations about the effectiveness of respective management regimes within and between metapopulations and to identify regions in particular need of conservation focus. We report scrub-jay population survey data at Seminole State Forest (SSF) in north-central Florida between 2008 and 2016. Our data suggest a population high in 2008 (n = 137), a low in 2015 (n = 90), and 97 individuals in 2016. Using these data, we modeled a simple population viability analysis which can be easily replicated, and interpreted with caution, by those with similar count data. Our analysis indicated a 0.78 extirpation probability of scrub-jays at SSF within 100 years. Relatively small, simulated increases in population growth substantially decreased this probability. Given that SSF scrub-jays likely constitute the largest portion of their metapopulation, continued and perhaps increased support for management efforts at SSF may be required for metapopulation persistence. Our results highlight the importance of population monitoring with respect to validating current, and identifying the need for future, management efforts.

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