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Truck-related crashes, crash severity, ordered probit model, marginal effect

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Truck-related crashes result in tremendous lives and property loss and become a serious safety issue in China. The goal of this article is to identify the influential factors for severity of truck-related crashes using data from Jingjintang freeways in China and to design an ordered probit model to explore their relationship. Records including crashes, traffic flow attributes, and geometric design features ranging from 2009 to 2012 were collected from Jingjintang freeway. Crashes are divided into three severity levels: slight injury, injury, and fatal injury. The injury crashes is ranking the first place occupying 64.37%. Truck-related crashes are likely to occur when truck percentage is around 20% and 80%. The speed of traffic flow decreases with the more appearance of trucks. The ordered probit model is developed to estimate the impacts of influential factors on injury severity of truck-related crashes. Marginal effects for each level of injury severity are calculated. The results reveal that truck-involving crashes are highly sensitive to factors such as time of day, truck percentage, average slope, operating speed, speed difference, and exposure variable. The average slope of road segment and speed gaps has the greatest impact on all severity levels of crashes.

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Advances in Mechanical Engineering, v. 11, issue 1, p. 1-8